COVID-19 PREPRINTS:
Childs, M.L., Kain, M.P., Kirk, D., Harris, M., Couper, L.I., Nova, N., Delwel, I., Ritchie, J., Mordecai, E.A. The impact of long-term non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 epidemic dynamics and control. May 3, 2020. Link here.
Harris, M.J., Tessier-Lavigne, E. *, Mordecai, E.A. The interplay of policy, behavior, and socioeconomic conditions in early COVID-19 epidemiology in Georgia (submitted). Preprint.
Peer Reviewed Publications
* denotes undergraduate or high-school student author; Mordecai lab member/advisee
Ngonghala, C.N., Ryan, S.J., Tesla, B., Demakovsky, L.R., Brindley, M.A., Mordecai, E.A., Murdock, C.C., Bonds, M.H. Effects of temperature on Zika dynamics and control. Journal of the Royal Society Interface (accepted). Preprint.
Croll, D., Crous, P.W., Pereira, D., Mordecai, E.A., McDonald, B.A., Brunner, P.C. 2021. Genome-scale phylogenies reveal relationships among Parastagonospora species infecting domesticated and wild grasses. Persoonia 24:116-128. link.
Kain, M.P. †, Childs, M.L. †, Becker, A.D., Mordecai, E.A. 2021. Chopping the tail: how preventing superspreading can help to maintain COVID-19 control. Epidemics 34:100430. link. † Co-first authors
Athni, T.S.*, Shocket, M.S., Couper, L.I., Nova, N., Caldwell, I.R., Caldwell, J.M., Childress, J.N., Childs, M.L., De Leo, G.A., Kirk, D., MacDonald, A.J., Olivarius, K., Pickel, D.G., Roberts, S.O., Winokur, O.C., Young, H.S., Cheng, J. *, Grant, E.A. *, Kurzner, P.M. *, Kyaw, S. *, Lin, B.J. *, López, R.C. *, Massihpour, D.S. *, Olsen, E.C. *, Roache, M. *, Ruiz, A. *, Schultz, E.A. *, Shafat, M. *, Spencer, R.L. *, Bharti, N.†, Mordecai, E.A.† 2021. The influence of vector-borne disease on human history: socio-ecological mechanisms. Ecology Letters 24:829-846. link. † Co-corresponding authors
Caldwell, J.M., LaBeaud, A.D., Lambin, E.F., Stewart-Ibarra, A.M., Ndenga, B.A., Mutuku, F.M., Krystosik, A.R., Beltrán Ayala, E., Anyamba, A., Borbor-Cordova, M.J., Damoah, R., Grossi-Soyster, E.N., Heras Heras, F., Ngugi, H.N., Ryan, S.J., Shah, M.S., Sippy, R., Mordecai, E.A. 2020. Climate explains geographic and temporal variation in mosquito-borne disease dynamics on two continents. Nature Communications (accepted). link.
Nova, N., Deyle, E.R., Shocket, M.S., MacDonald, A.J., Childs, M.L., Rypdal, M., Sugihara, G., Mordecai, E.A. 2020. Susceptible host availability modulates climate effects on dengue dynamics. Ecology Letters 24:415-425. link. PDF.
Couper, L.I., MacDonald, A.J., Mordecai, E.A. 2020. Impact of prior and projected climate change on US Lyme disease incidence. Global Change Biology 27:738-754. link.
Kendig, A.E., Spear, E.R., Daws, S.C., Flory, S.L., Mordecai, E.A. Native perennial and non-native annual grasses shape pathogen community composition and disease severity in a California grassland. Journal of Ecology(accepted; preprint: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.19.104950)
Ryan, S.J., Carlson, C.J., Tesla, B., Bonds, M.H., Ngonghala, C., Mordecai, E.A., Johnson, L.R., Murdock, C.C. Climate change could expose 1.3 billion new people to Zika virus risk by the mid-century. Global Change Biology. (accepted; preprint: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.29.20142422)
Shocket, M.S., Verwillow, A., Numazu, M., Slamani, H., Cohen, J., El Moustaid, F., Rohr, J., Johnson, L.R., Mordecai, E.A. 2020. Transmission of West Nile and five other temperate mosquito-borne viruses peaks at temperatures between 23°C and 26°C. eLife 9:e58511. https://dx.doi.org/10.7554%2FeLife.58511.
Farner, J.E.*, Spear, E.R., Mordecai, E.A. 2020. Habitat type and interannual variation shape unique fungal pathogen communities on a California native bunchgrass. Fungal Ecology 48:100983. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.funeco.2020.100983.
Muñoz, Á.G., Chourio, X., Riviere-Cinnamond, A., Diuk-Wasser, M., Kache, P., Mordecai, E.A., Harrington, L., Thomson, M.C. 2020. AeDES: A Next-Generation Monitoring and Forecasting System for Environmental Suitability of Aedes-borne Disease Transmission. Scientific Reports (in press).
Miazgowicz, K.L., Mordecai, E.A., Ryan, S.J., Hall, R.J., Owen, J., Adanlawo, T., Blaji, K., Murdock, C.C. 2020. Age influences the thermal suitability of Plasmodium falciparum transmission in the Asian malaria vector Anopheles stephensi. Proceedings of the Royal Society B 287: 20201093. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2020.1093
Mordecai, E.A., Caldwell, J.M., Ryan, S.J., Shah, M.M., LaBeaud, A.D. 2020. Climate warming may shift disease burden from malaria to arboviruses in Africa. Lancet Planetary Health 4:e416-e423. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30178-9.
Cator, L.J., Johnson, L.R., Mordecai, E.A., El Moustaid, F., Smallwood, T.R.C., LaDeau, S.L., Johansson, M.A., Hudson, P.J., Boots, M., Thomas, M.B., Power, A.G., Pawar, S. 2020. The role of vector trait variation in vector-borne disease dynamics. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution 8:189. https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2020.00189.
Rohr, J.R., Civitello, D.J., Halliday, F.W., Hudson, P.J., Lafferty, K.D., Wood, C.L. Mordecai, E.A. 2020. Towards common ground in the biodiversity – disease debate. Nature Ecology and Evolution 4:24-33. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-019-1060-6.
Johansson, M.A., et al. 2019. Advancing probabilistic epidemic forecasting through an open challenge: The Dengue Forecasting Project. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 116: 26087-26088. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1909865116.
MacDonald, A.J., Mordecai, E.A. 2019. Amazon deforestation drives malaria transmission, and malaria burden reduces forest clearing. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 116 (44): 22212-22218. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1905315116.
Harris, M.*, Caldwell, J.M., Mordecai, E.A. 2019. Climate drives spatial variation in Zika epidemics in Latin America. Proceedings of the Royal Society B 286(1909): 20191578 https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2019.1578.
Mordecai, E.A., Caldwell, J.M., Grossman, M.K., Lippi, C.A., Johnson, L.R., Neira, M., Rohr, J.R., Ryan, S.J., Savage, V., Shocket, M.S., Sippy, R., Stewart-Ibarra, A.M., Thomas, M.B., Villena, O. 2019. Thermal biology of mosquito-borne disease. Ecology Letters 22 (10): 1690-1708. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.13335.
Shah, M., Krystosik, A.R, Ndenga, B.A., Mutuku, F.M., Caldwell, J.M., Otuka, V., Chebii, P.K., Maina, P.W., Jembe, Z., Ronga, C., Bisanzio, D., Anyamba, A., Damoah, R., Ripp, K., Jagannathan, P., Mordecai, E.A., LaBeaud, A.D. 2019. Malaria smear positivity among Kenyan children peaks at intermediate temperatures as predicted by ecological models. Parasites and Vectors 12(1), 288. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-019-3547-z.
Childs, M., Nova, N., Colvin, J.*, Mordecai, E.A. 2019. Mosquito and primate ecology predict human risk of yellow fever virus spillover in Brazil. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society 374: 20180335. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2018.0335.
Ryan, S.J., Carlson, C.J., Mordecai, E.A., Johnson, L.R. 2019. Global expansion and redistribution of Aedes-borne virus transmission risk with climate change. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 13 (3): e0007213. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007213.
Uricchio, L.H., Daws, S.C., Spear, E.R., Mordecai, E.A. 2019. Priority effects and the maintenance of diversity in a complex California grassland community. American Naturalist 193(2):213-226. https://doi.org/10.1086/701434.
Smith, J.R., Letten, A.D., Ke, P., Anderson, C.B., Hendershot, J.N., Dhami, M.K., Dlott, G.A., Grainger, T.N., Howard, M.E., Morrison, B.M.L., Routh, D., San Juan, P.A., Mooney, H.A., Mordecai, E.A., Crowther, T.W., Daily, G.C. 2018. A global test of ecoregions. Nature Ecology and Evolution 2(12):1889. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-018-0709-x.
Tesla, B., Demakovsky, L., Packiam, H., Mordecai, E.A., Rodríguez, A., Bonds, M., Brindley, M., Murdock, C.C. 2018. Estimating the effects of variation in viremia on mosquito susceptibility, infectiousness, and R0 of Zika in Aedes aegypti. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 12(8): e0006733. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0006733.
Tesla, B., Demakovsky, L.R., Mordecai, E.A., Bonds, M.H., Ngonghala, C.N., Brindley, M.A., Murdock, C.C. 2018. Temperature drives Zika virus transmission: evidence from empirical and mathematical models. Proceedings of the Royal Society B 285:20180795. https://dx.doi.org/ 10.1098/rspb.2018.0795.
Shocket, M.S., Ryan, S.J., Mordecai, E.A. 2018. Transmission of Ross River virus peaks at intermediate temperatures. eLife 7:e37762. https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.37762.
Spear, E.R., Mordecai, E.A. 2018. Foliar pathogens of California grasses are multi-host and spatially widespread: implications for grassland diversity. Ecology 99(10): 2250-2259. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.2427.
Huber, J.H.*, Childs, M.L., Caldwell, J.M., Mordecai, E.A. 2018. Seasonal temperature variation influences climate suitability for dengue, chikungunya, and Zika transmission. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 12(5): e0006451. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0006451.
Johnson, L.R., Gramacy, R.B., Cohen, J., Mordecai, E.A., Murdock, C.C., Rohr, J.R., Ryan, S.J., Stewart-Ibarra, A.M., Weikel, D.P. 2018. Phenomenological forecasting of disease incidence using heteroskedastic Gaussian processes: a dengue case study. Annals of Applied Statistics 12(1): 27-66. https://doi.org/10.1214/17-AOAS1090.
Mordecai, E.A., Cohen, J.M., Evans, M.V., Gudapati, P.*, Johnson, L.R., Miazgowicz, K., Murdock, C.C., Rohr, J.R., Ryan, S.J., Savage, V., Shocket, M., Stewart Ibarra, A., Thomas, M.B., Weikel, D.P. 2017. Detecting the impact of temperature on transmission of Zika, dengue and chikungunya using mechanistic models. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 11(4): e0005568. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005568.
Garchitorena. A., Sokolow, S.H., Roche, B., Ngonghala, C.N., Jocque, M., Lund, A., Barry, M., Mordecai E.A., Daily, G.C., Jones, J.H., Andrews, J.R., Bendavid, E., Luby, S.P., LaBeaud, A.D., Seetah, K., Guégan, J.F., Bonds, M.H., De Leo, G.A. 2017. Disease ecology, health and the environment: a framework to account for ecological and socio-economic drivers in the control of neglected tropical diseases. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society 372: 20160128. https://dx.doi.org/ 10.1098/rstb.2016.0128.
Ali, S.*, Gugliemini, O.*, Harber, S.*, Harrison, S.*, Houle, L.*, Ivory, J.*, Kersten, S.*, Khan, R.*, Kim, J.*, LeBoa, C.*, Nez-Whitfield, E.*, O’Marr, J.*, Rothenberg, E.*, Segnitz, R.M., Sila, S.*, Verwillow, A.*, Vogt, M.*, Yang, A.*, Mordecai, E.A. 2017. Environmental and social change drive the explosive emergence of Zika virus in the Americas. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 11(2): e0005135. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005135.
Lafferty, K.D., Mordecai, E.A. 2016. The rise and fall of infectious disease in a warmer world. F1000Research 5: 2040. https://dx.doi.org/10.12688%2Ff1000research.8766.1.
Fukami, T., Mordecai, E.A., Ostling, A. 2016. Commentary: A framework for priority effects. Journal of Vegetation Science 27: 655–657. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/jvs.12434.
Taylor, R.A., Mordecai, E.A., Gilligan, C.A., Rohr, J.R., Johnson, L.R. 2016. Mathematical models are a powerful method to understand and control the spread of Huanglongbing. PeerJ 4: e2642. https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.2642.
Mordecai, E.A., Jaramillo, A.G., Ashford, J.E.*, Hechinger, R.F., Lafferty, K.D. 2016. The role of competition – colonization tradeoffs and spatial heterogeneity in promoting species coexistence in a diverse guild of California salt marsh trematodes. Ecology 97 (6), 1484-1496. http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1890/15-0753.1.
Napier, J.D.*, Mordecai, E.A., Heckman, R.W. 2016. The role of drought- and disturbance-mediated competition in shaping community responses to global change. Oecologia 181(2): 621-632. http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1007/s00442-016-3582-9.
Mordecai, E.A., Gross, K., Mitchell, C.E. 2016. Within-host niche differences and fitness tradeoffs promote coexistence of plant viruses. American Naturalist 87(1): E13-E26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/670190.
Ryan, S.J., McNally, A., Johnson, L.R., Ben-Horin, T., Mordecai, E.A., Paaijmans, K., Lafferty, K.D. 2015. Mapping physiological suitability limits for malaria in Africa under climate change. Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases 15(12): 718-725. http://dx.doi.org/10.1089/vbz.2015.1822.
Mordecai, E.A., Molinari N.A., Stahlheber, K., Gross, K., D’Antonio, C. 2015. Controls over native perennial grass exclusion and persistence in annual-invaded California grasslands. Ecology 96(10): 2643-2652. https://doi.org/10.1890/14-2023.1.
Mordecai, E.A., Hindenlang, M.*, Mitchell, C.E. 2015. Differential impacts of virus diversity on biomass production of a native and an exotic grass host. PLoS ONE 10(7): e0134355.
Seabloom, E.W., Borer, E.T., Gross, K., Kendig, A., Lacroix, C., Mitchell, C.E., Mordecai, E.A., Power, A.G. 2015. The community ecology of pathogens: Coinfection, coexistence, and community composition. Ecology Letters 18: 401-415. http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1111/ele.12418.
Mordecai, E.A. 2015. Pathogen impacts on plant diversity in variable environments. Oikos 124: 414-420. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/oik.01328.
Johnson, L.R., Ben-Horin, T., Lafferty, K.D., McNally, A., Mordecai, E.A., Paaijmans, K.P., Pawar, S., Ryan, S.J. 2015. Understanding uncertainty in temperature effects on vector-borne disease: A Bayesian approach. Ecology 96:203-213. arXiv:1310.5110.
Mordecai, E.A. 2013. Despite spillover, a shared pathogen promotes native plant persistence in a cheatgrass-invaded grassland. Ecology 94:2744–2753. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/13-0086.1
Mordecai, E.A. 2013. Consequences of pathogen spillover for cheatgrass-invaded grasslands: coexistence, competitive exclusion, or priority effects. American Naturalist 181(6): 737-747. http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/670190.
Mordecai, E.A., Paaijmans, K., Balzer, C., Ben-Horin, T., de Moor, E., Johnson, L.R., McNally, A., Pawar, S., Ryan, S.J., Smith, T.C., Lafferty, K.D. 2013. Optimal temperature for malaria transmission is dramatically lower than previously predicted. Ecology Letters 16: 22-30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ele.12015.
Mordecai, E.A. 2012. Soil moisture and fungi affect seed survival in California grassland annual plants. PLoS ONE 7(6): e39083. http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1371/journal.pone.0039083
Mordecai, E.A. 2011. Pathogen impacts on plant communities: unifying theory, concepts, and empirical work. Ecological Monographs 81(3): 429-441. Faculty of 1000 Recommended. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/10-2241.1
Viola, D.V., Mordecai, E.A., Sistla, S.A., Jaramillo, A.G., Gosnell, G.S., Albertson, L.K., Cardinale, B.J., Levine, J.M. 2010. Competition–defense tradeoffs and the maintenance of plant diversity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104(40): 17217-17222. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1007745107
Warren, R.J., Mordecai E.A. 2010. Soil moisture mediated interaction between Polygonatum biflorum and leaf spot disease. Plant Ecology 209: 1-9. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11258-009-9713-1
Lafferty, K.D., Allesina, S., Arim, M., Briggs, C.J., DeLeo, G., Dobson, A.P., Dunne, J.A., Johnson, P.T., Kuris, A.M., Marcogliese, D.J., Martinez, N.D., Memmott, J., Marquet, P.A., McLaughlin, J.P., Mordecai, E.A., Pascual, M., Poulin, R., Thieltges, D.W. 2008. Parasites in food webs: the ultimate missing links. Ecology Letters 11: 533-546. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2008.01174.x.